Leggo su New York Times un articolo (→ Challenging the Crowd in Whispers, Not Shouts) di Robert J. Shiller (professore di Economia) che offre una spiegazione circa la non previsione della crisi in corso da parte dei numerosi panel di esperti:
“From my own experience on expert panels, I know firsthand the pressures that people — might I say mavericks? — may feel when questioning the group consensus.”In termini più accademici, Shiller nota che:
“The field of social psychology provides a possible answer. In his classic 1972 book, “Groupthink,” Irving L. Janis, the Yale psychologist, explained how panels of experts could make colossal mistakes. People on these panels, he said, are forever worrying about their personal relevance and effectiveness, and feel that if they deviate too far from the consensus, they will not be given a serious role. They self-censor personal doubts about the emerging group consensus if they cannot express these doubts in a formal way that conforms with apparent assumptions held by the group.”Maverick? Sai cosa vuol dire? Io, purtroppo, sì, visto che sono uno di loro (→ definizione).
Cordef 